Kapok: Tyrannies of Numbers

It is indeed an oft-repeated mantra regarding China: one of the issue that blurs our analytical perspective is that numbers are big there; and when I say big, I mean huge; and when I say huge, I clearly imply massive. Economic growth, population, size of cities, Internet users, and members of the Communist Party: everything is enormous, beyond any other country except for India. But then numbers in India, although the country has been part of the original and fast rising BRIC league right from the start (expanding now in BRICS, BRICSI and even TIMBI!), have been regarded up until recently as an impediment rather than a blessing: illiteracy rate, criminality, the multiplicity of states and union territories making the federation more fragile, and even the “inferiority complex of the majority” of Hindus vs. Muslims, etc. Now that the “demographic dividend” along with the benefit of “free thinking” fuelling modernized entrepreneurship seem to have shifted in favor of India, China’s horizon appears to be rather darkened because of its outdated “one-child policy” along with its very constrained paths to innovation, enlightenment far too often falling victim of plutocracy. Size does matter, but the very nature of the social, economic and political fabric of a nation will ultimately matter even more.
Macao has to suffer from its own tyranny of numbers: insolent years of GDP growth at a time of world recession; gambling revenues six times the ones of Vegas; largest casino premises in the world; biggest water show on the planet; one of the world’s lowest rates of unemployment; and of course one of the most indecent government surplus in the world when countries considered to be birthplaces of modern civilization are selling off national treasures to any investment fund, sovereign or less so, showing up with cash-laden briefcases. When a government is running a deficit and credit becomes scarce, austerity measures or budget rigor, as we now call it in France, become a necessity—yet the timing of such measures is still hotly debated. When a government is barely spending 45% of its revenues, what do we call it? Preemptive rigor or blindness to much needed investments for the future?
Wednesday’s tropical shower should act as a wake up call, a strident whistle blow in the deafening silence of ineptitude. In just three and a half hours, one meter of water fell on Macao, cascading in steep staircases, submerging roads, tossing vehicles on the side and flooding car parks and ground floors in several parts of the city—some below sea-level, but many above. I incidentally happened to be driving at 8pm that day, and witnessed first-hand the chaotic stir all of a sudden engulfing the city, from peninsula to far-off Coloane, bridges included. For some reason it reminded me of the 2011 Bangkok flooding that took months to recede. Nothing of that magnitude in Macao, and yet the lessons from the Thai capital’s upheaval found some strange echoes in Macao’s own commotion. Bangkok happened to be a manmade disaster brought by years of unrestrained urban development that had totally destroyed one of the oldest and most sophisticated drainage-canal systems. Macao’s drainage system has never been that sophisticated, but it is clearly obsolete and certainly not on par with the needs and challenges brought by ten years of fast and furious economic development. We indeed have Third World problems in a First World territory with First World revenues: luckily for us, the pouring lasted just a few hours and the next day was sunny.

Published in Macau Daily Times, May 11th 2013

Kapok: Echo logic

Coincidences are always troubling; on the same weekend that the Macao International Environmental Cooperation Forum & Exhibition (MIECF) was coming to an end a group of concerned citizens rallying via Facebook marched to safeguard “green Coloane.” On the one hand were a yearly jamboree of grand plans, grandiose declarations of intent and a quantitative expression of self-satisfaction for the big “n” numbers of agreements signed: each aimed to arouse awareness of environmental protection, and this year in particular to advance the cause of “green tourism” - a form of tourism involving environmentally positive activities from choosing to have hotels wash towels less often to developing full-scale eco-friendly architecture. On the other hand, a small, but highly motivated group of residents, accompanied by rather low-key activists and legislators, demonstrated their unease at the unrestrained greed that, they claim, is being exhibited by some real-estate developers. These activists argued that these developers are desecrating what was once considered the “green lung” of Macao with towering and uninventive concrete blocks.
The inadequacy of current public policies and regulations must share some of the blame, especially because environmental impact studies are undertaken post licensing and are merely considered as flexible technicalities. This should not be so as there is indeed a somehow “binding” document issued by the government aptly entitled “Environmental Protection Planning of Macao (2010-2020)” that clearly states one of the strategic orientations is “to make holistic investigation into local ecosystems, to implement district-based protection by dividing them into different environmental functional districts according to their nature and the protected [zones], and to apply protective measures for the sensitive ecosystem, together with continual monitoring.” The Urban Planning Law is currently under discussion in the legislature and the legal aspects of the discussion have stalled on the extent of the discretionary power the government should have in evading the law on the grounds of “higher public interests” (yet to be defined). The irony of the situation is that principled legislators and more business-oriented ones are on the same side albeit for different reasons: the former because of their desire for cleaner and more sustainable development and the latter because of the lack of predictability these changes bring to their profit-seeking endeavors.
Meanwhile ecological awareness is growing amongst the general population. Last time we viewed the official gazette online there were no less than 61 associations dealing with such issues in Macao under the “environment protection” section of “associations” registered with the government. Yet, as only one hundred people showed up on a Sunday to protect what is left of Macao’s hilly green horizon, one could still ask the question “where are (the activists) to be seen?” It seems that just increasing awareness is not enough and time is not on our side.
The Macao government has taken a few steps in the right direction, although a good ten years later than Hong Kong. The most significant example of positive action is the document pertaining to environmental protection planning. But the implementation is too timid, too gradual and always emphasizing continuity over a clean break. The issues currently being faced are increasing as the city develops faster, higher and with an unprecedented urban density. In March, the Hong Kong government released its guidelines regarding “A Clean Air Plan for Hong Kong” urging for emergency measures and precise commitments—in budgeting and targeting—towards a reduction in and the exposure of the public to harmful emissions. The protection of the environment and a cleaner atmosphere are not only ideological in nature, they are also a matter of public health, especially when cardiovascular and respiratory disorders are concerned which will thus impact public spending. A poor environment will soon weigh on government coffers, and be more keenly felt as the population ages. So let’s learn from Hong Kong and not make the same mistakes when it comes to limiting the exposure to lethal fumes and tunneling effects that are amplified by high-rise structures.

Published in Macau Daily Times, April 12th 2013.