Kapok: Reconciling the irreconcilable

Maybe it was mere slip of the tongue. Maybe it was simply a manner of speaking. Or maybe it was truly what was meant. Yet, when the Chief Executive seemed to imply in his out of the cuff response to an unscheduled question addressed by legislator Ng Kuok Cheong that Macao had been “imposed” the mutual recognition of driving licenses between the mainland and the SAR in order to satisfy the grand plan of regional integration defined by the central authorities, it caused indeed more confusion than relief.

After all, legislator Ng was bringing up the matter because of a widespread public concern that this would indeed affect traffic very adversely, bearing in mind that this mutual recognition had been originally pitched by the government as a way to facilitate things for Macao citizens. Even though this is not antagonistic, it does suggest a logical discrepancy that has far-reaching consequences as to what presides over the design of a public policy: either you initiate or you obey, and then for whose benefit?

Beyond what it reveals once more of this Chief Executive — his clear inability to argue for what is supposed to be his own policies when he cannot mumble a written document — this mishap might prove to be useful in the end as it will allow to open a debate on the adequacy of such a  highly debatable scheme. The very same day, suspended legislator Sulu Sou was staging an event outside of the Assembly contesting the validity of the already proclaimed government dispatch regarding the mutual recognition, as both the haste of the proclamation and the lack of justification(s) for it seemed to clearly indicate that “a bigger power” — to use Sulu’s wording — was at play.

This is all the more saddening that the government, and Mr Chui in particular, are in the midst of trying to sell the latest fad for an ever-bright and prosperous Macao beyond gaming: the development of the Greater Bay area! It is no secret that the vision to integrate further the urban continuum between Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Foshan, Huizhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Zhaoqing, Hong Kong and Macao was the centrepiece of the discussions for Macao’s representatives who attended the “two meetings” in Beijing in March. It was especially true for the twelve Macao representatives at the National People’s Congress, including four (Ho Iat Seng, Kou Hoi In, José Chui Sai Peng and Si Ka Lon) who are concurrently members of the Macao Legislative Assembly.

So, when I read that “many lawmakers expressed doubts regarding the influence and relevance of the Greater Bay Area plan”, I can perceive a sense of irony in the journalist’s report, especially as Kou Hoi In himself took the lead in rhetorically raising some questions. The Chief Executive’s exposé had been — to remain polite — dreary: “promote infrastructure connectivity”, “enhance the level of market integration”, “build a global technology and innovation hub”, “build a modern system of industries through coordinated development”, “build jointly a quality urban environment”, “cultivate greater strength in international cooperation”, and “support the establishment of major cooperation platforms”.

Over the past month, pro-establishment legislators have been all over the place in trying to illustrate, sometimes very creatively, what the Greater Bay Area could entail: such is the case of Si Ka Lon who is now suggesting the creation of a sea reserve for international tourism, or Zheng Anting (Jiangmen belongs to the network of eleven cities) who would like the scheme to facilitate the relocation of aging citizens on the mainland. In the Chinese press of Macao, it is no less than 1,155 articles that focused or dealt with the “Greater Bay Area” since mid-March: no wonder then that the Chief Executive appeared to be obsessed with an ever-increasing integration of Macao in the Pearl River Delta!

But how, when and for whose benefit? In the questions addressed to Mr Chui, there was absolutely no mention of Hengqin and its ongoing development. Yet, the island was the subject of 150 press articles in Chinese over the same past month: beyond the slogans, reality bites!

Published in Macau Daily Times on April 20, 2018

Kapok: Bottoming at last?

“Bottoming” is the new buzzword that has been on everyone’s lips for a few months now. It intends to convey the positive outlook that our whole economy could soon be recovering after 20 straight months of dwindling gaming revenues. Although it is a very large step away from the more robust “upturn” or “recovery”, one gets the feeling that there is finally some light at the end of the tunnel—even if the light is still distant and the “bottoming” stage surely prolonged.
Beyond the necessary confidence bolstered by casino operators to reassure investors, the “bottoming” credo rests on two main arguments. First, that the shift towards the mass market is finally happening, and that revenues from what constitutes now half of the pie is slowly but surely making gains—only VIP rooms are still steeply declining; and second that the downward trend is decelerating—gaming revenues shrank by 21.4 percent in January 2016 whereas they plummeted by a record 48.6 percent in February 2015. With that perspective in mind, and despite an overall staggering contraction in gaming revenues of 34.3 percent for 2015, one could say that we are now falling at half the pace of a year ago.
All this is very well: casino operators are still turning hefty profits and with an estimated MOP350 billion in GDP for 2015, Macao should still be No. 2 on the world listing of GDP per capita—don’t ask me about distribution though as the last time we “extrapolated” a Gini Index in the SAR was in 2011.
Yet, the “bottoming out”, the real change on the road to recovery, is heavily dependent on the success of the oft-repeated “diversification” and transformation of Macao into “a world centre of tourism and leisure”. The diversification here can be either “path dependent” and/or resolutely novel. The first direction considers the development of tourism as the extension and necessary complement of the gambling industry. Huge properties have already been built, more are scheduled to open (with further delays) in 2016/2017 in Cotai, and then many more will mushroom in Hengqin—Maldives- or Bhutan-like, but all mega in size. Upper mass market is the target, and more in line with the VIP heritage that is presently restructuring. And then there is the entirely new route: think Marina ripping the benefit of an extension of our maritime borders; think business and finance in Shizimen; think creative industries in Xiangzhou Culture Street; think medical tourism investments from well-established local companies; think industrial park; think transportation hub connected with China’s fastest network; etc. In the meantime, local SMEs are being pampered. Energetic young people are opening cafés all around town with generous government funding, and creative industries of all guises are being given the nod.
Indeed, how can one doubt that the next stage of development for Macao has to be found in the periphery if we want to spare the suffocation of Macau’s heart and soul while making the whole ‘MSAR experience’ something that visitors remember and possibly come back to? But the question of the short- and medium-term remains. When will this periphery be up and running? What about the sustainability of all these small service outlets enriching our neighborhoods? Who will actually benefit in the end? Unimaginative and greedy vested interests are also a Macao specialty.
As of now, we had only marginally fewer tourists in 2015 (30.7 million) than in 2014, but tourists still stay on average 1.1 nights per visit (against 3.3 in Hong Kong) and visitor expenditures have gone drastically down with the per capita average registering a staggering 15 percent contraction—so much for the “upper mass market” drive! And then general retail is down too, by 10.4 percent year-on-year—the first yearly decline since 1999! Providing Macao citizens with incentives to consume cannot hurt—“Macao loves locals”—but long-term recovery goals will require bigger sweeteners and a thorough upgrade of the operating system if innovation and talent are to prevail.

© Rodrigo de Matos, MDT

Published in Macau Daily Times, February 26 2016