Friday, December 20, 2013

Kapok: Assessment blues

Back in 2011, a public consultation was organized regarding a “General Policy on Traffic and Land Transportation in Macao (2010-2020)”. The intent was sound, especially because the promise of tremendous changes over the coming ten years, based on mere projections of 2010 trends, was simply frightening: the number of vehicles would grow from 190,000 to 310,000, the share of public transportation in overall transport would drop below 30%, the average speed of traffic at rush hour on the Macao peninsula would decrease from 15 to 10 km per hour, the average time that residents would spend on commuting would increase by 50%, and overall emissions of CO2 by terrestrial vehicles would double (the reference year being 2005 and not 2010 in this case). The message was simple: the unrestrained increase in private vehicles would make traffic congestion a nightmare, slow us down for everything we do and seriously threaten our health.
At the time of the public consultation, the top worries of those interviewed were the need “to adjust the bus lines” as far as public transports were concerned, the need to build more public parking spaces when vehicle management was at stake and plan more pedestrian areas when considering eco-friendly means of transportation. New urban areas were supposed to be linked to old neighborhoods and the historical center via an integrated model that would ideally see residents reach their workplace and back via a three stage path starting with a walk and/or a short bicycle ride, then a commuting via metro and ultimately a short bus or taxi trip to their final destination. A key feature of the overall design was for public transports as a share of overall terrestrial transportation in Macao to climb from 33.6% to 50%, instead of going downward, as indicated in the original projections. This promise was no little feat: the idea was not only to reverse the trend but also to make public transports twice as popular. And remember, that was supposed to be science, not fiction…
In the short term, meaning 2012 in the policy document, the priority was to “reorganize public transports” and “focus on the safeguarding of commuting”. In the mid-term, 2015 in the plan, the “metro” will have started operating and “tangible results in every area supporting the ‘primacy of public transports’” will have been achieved. When the Transport Bureau, the DSAT according to its Portuguese acronym, released its 2011/2012 Annual Summary about “Macao overall terrestrial transport policy (2010-2020)” last week, I was, to say the least, pretty curious to see how they would make the reality fits with the intended goals for 2012. As expected, the overall report focuses on achievements, from the “9.3 km of light rail under construction”, the increase in usage of bus service of 27% as well as 15% of private vehicle trips, the building or enhancement of 22 footbridges and the construction of 2.5 km of riverfront cycle tracks, the construction of 13 new public parking lots providing an additional 4,800 private car and 5,200 motorcycle parking spaces, to the development of “intelligent” information systems about traffic and parking, the promotion of cross-border traffic, the renovation of the accessibility in the historic center and of course the promotion of road safety and the DSAT’s own action. Promotional activities actually take up a good fourth of that 46-page strong report!
Unfortunately, not a word about the 225,433 vehicles registered as of October 2013 (against 113,814 at the end of 1999, whereas public roads totaled 417 km at the end of 2012 against 321 km in 1999). Not a word about a most probable delay in operation to 2018, instead of 2015, of the Light Rapid Transit railway. Not a word about traffic having slowed down by a good 25% on both bridges linking the peninsula to Taipa largely because of inadequate traffic management by the DSAT. Not a word about the third bus operator, Reolian, filing a lawsuit against the government in June and filing for bankruptcy in October. But… how stupid of me: this concerns 2013!

Published in Macau Daily Times, December 20 2013.