Friday, December 20, 2013

Kapok: Assessment blues

Back in 2011, a public consultation was organized regarding a “General Policy on Traffic and Land Transportation in Macao (2010-2020)”. The intent was sound, especially because the promise of tremendous changes over the coming ten years, based on mere projections of 2010 trends, was simply frightening: the number of vehicles would grow from 190,000 to 310,000, the share of public transportation in overall transport would drop below 30%, the average speed of traffic at rush hour on the Macao peninsula would decrease from 15 to 10 km per hour, the average time that residents would spend on commuting would increase by 50%, and overall emissions of CO2 by terrestrial vehicles would double (the reference year being 2005 and not 2010 in this case). The message was simple: the unrestrained increase in private vehicles would make traffic congestion a nightmare, slow us down for everything we do and seriously threaten our health.
At the time of the public consultation, the top worries of those interviewed were the need “to adjust the bus lines” as far as public transports were concerned, the need to build more public parking spaces when vehicle management was at stake and plan more pedestrian areas when considering eco-friendly means of transportation. New urban areas were supposed to be linked to old neighborhoods and the historical center via an integrated model that would ideally see residents reach their workplace and back via a three stage path starting with a walk and/or a short bicycle ride, then a commuting via metro and ultimately a short bus or taxi trip to their final destination. A key feature of the overall design was for public transports as a share of overall terrestrial transportation in Macao to climb from 33.6% to 50%, instead of going downward, as indicated in the original projections. This promise was no little feat: the idea was not only to reverse the trend but also to make public transports twice as popular. And remember, that was supposed to be science, not fiction…
In the short term, meaning 2012 in the policy document, the priority was to “reorganize public transports” and “focus on the safeguarding of commuting”. In the mid-term, 2015 in the plan, the “metro” will have started operating and “tangible results in every area supporting the ‘primacy of public transports’” will have been achieved. When the Transport Bureau, the DSAT according to its Portuguese acronym, released its 2011/2012 Annual Summary about “Macao overall terrestrial transport policy (2010-2020)” last week, I was, to say the least, pretty curious to see how they would make the reality fits with the intended goals for 2012. As expected, the overall report focuses on achievements, from the “9.3 km of light rail under construction”, the increase in usage of bus service of 27% as well as 15% of private vehicle trips, the building or enhancement of 22 footbridges and the construction of 2.5 km of riverfront cycle tracks, the construction of 13 new public parking lots providing an additional 4,800 private car and 5,200 motorcycle parking spaces, to the development of “intelligent” information systems about traffic and parking, the promotion of cross-border traffic, the renovation of the accessibility in the historic center and of course the promotion of road safety and the DSAT’s own action. Promotional activities actually take up a good fourth of that 46-page strong report!
Unfortunately, not a word about the 225,433 vehicles registered as of October 2013 (against 113,814 at the end of 1999, whereas public roads totaled 417 km at the end of 2012 against 321 km in 1999). Not a word about a most probable delay in operation to 2018, instead of 2015, of the Light Rapid Transit railway. Not a word about traffic having slowed down by a good 25% on both bridges linking the peninsula to Taipa largely because of inadequate traffic management by the DSAT. Not a word about the third bus operator, Reolian, filing a lawsuit against the government in June and filing for bankruptcy in October. But… how stupid of me: this concerns 2013!

Published in Macau Daily Times, December 20 2013.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Kapok: Look on the bright side

Contrary to many analysts and politicians, I don’t believe that the policy address delivered last week by our Chief Executive is the “worst ever”. Moreover, I simply refuse to side with the sneering scornful commentators who have been disparaging the wording of the address for its shallowness, unconvincing semantics and lack of specifics. Sure, just like every single year, the address reflects a lack of courage that derives from a subtle mix of personal equation—our less than charismatic leader—, a balancing act between vested interests—the “four families”, their many cronies and their concealed conflicts of interests—, and institutional design—the absence of any form of accountability that has been eroding the overall legitimacy of the whole system. Just like in years past, the address is rather short of breath when it comes to critically reviewing past achievements or lack thereof regarding the implementation of previous public policies, as if the usual process of “assess, continue, revise, substitute or stop” had absolutely no meaning in our land of milk and honey.
Despite all the free flow of renminbi, mistakes, blunders and more than baroque policy designs will ultimately engender problems that will become ever harder to disentangle—traffic and public transportation naturally spring to mind—or simply impossible to tackle due to lack of preparedness—imagine a SARS-like crisis in Macao given our 2.3 hospital beds per 1,000 residents, half the ratio of both Hong Kong and Taiwan. And here, I am not even factoring the apparent incapacity of several government departments to anticipate things to come and thus articulate a diagnosis somehow correlated with reality. Just looking into the execution of the budget for 2012, now examined in the second permanent committee of the Legislative Assembly, and in which government revenues stand at MOP145 billion and spending at MOP54 billion, one soon realizes how wrong the government had been in its prospective calculations back in November 2011 when the budget for 2012 was thought to reach revenues of MOP115 billion and spending of MOP77 billion, ultimately earning 26% more but spending 30% less! And then, on such a trivial question as home-ownership and just as Mr Chui was trying to justify the backseat position given to housing measures, both our top executive and his “grey eminence” Lao Pun Lap started quoting figures that seemed to contradict the statistics of the DSEC: do we have 82.3% of home-owners, as per the 2011 census, or 72.9% according to DSEC figures for 2006 (down from 76.7% in 2001)? And how come the trend has been inverted at a time of renewed speculation? And what is the actual relevance of that figure anyway when these concern households (not individuals) in which young people who already have jobs purposely stay longer with their parents and delay their entry into an unsympathetic real-estate market beginning a career?
Nevertheless, and in spite of all the shortcomings, this particular address is announcing a paradigm shift of some sort, one in which, for the first time ever, the “short-termism” of the whole exercise is being questioned: if not a vision yet, surely there is a wish to project the whole community in the future. This is reflected in the generic title of the address “Increasing global capacity and promoting sustainable development”, that somehow positions “well-being” and “standard of living”, the two dominant leitmotifs of the 2013 and 2012 addresses respectively, as a dependent variable of the capacity to cultivate “talents”, that is to prepare Macao’s residents to be competitive and more self-assured in an environment that is necessarily extroverted. Ultimately, the government seems to realize that by overemphasizing the traditional Weberian perspective of the “protective” father, it had been defaulting on its capacity to be a “nurturing” uncle.

Published in Macau Daily Times, November 22 2013

Friday, November 08, 2013

Kapok: Would be welfare state

For quite some time now there has been a staggering contrast between the capacity of Macao to generate an extraordinary amount of wealth and its inability to make good of that newly acquired affluence. The recurring symptom of that abysmal gap between riches and expenses has been felt by many in their day-to-day life: expectations regarding public services, whether directly operated by state agencies or conceded to private entities, and the promises of a “better quality of life” are increasingly and consistently frustrated. The execution of the 2012 government budget that is now under discussion in the second commission of the Legislative Assembly tells us that public accounts have managed to produce a surplus of a mind-blowing MOP90.9 billion! Should we really rejoice? 
If we look back at the 14 years passed since the handover, there has been no single year of public deficit. Surpluses have therefore been the rule, but starting in 2007 these excesses transformed into “mega surpluses”: that year alone, the public account surplus tripled compared to the previous year, reaching MOP30 billion, and government spending only reached 43% of government revenues. Five years later, in 2012, the surplus has again tripled and the government now spends only 37% of its revenues. 
By just adding up yearly surpluses, I came to realize that accumulated excesses since 2000 amounted to an astounding MOP343 billion, that means close to our 2012 GDP of MOP348 billion or more than six years of government expenditure at current level! As far as the report on the execution of the budget is concerned, financial reserves are indicated as being “only” in the amount of MOP100 billion (less than 30% of GDP and a bit less than two years government expenditures) at the end of 2012. 
If only part of the yearly surplus goes to the reserve (80% in 2012) and another part feeds the foreign exchange reserves (a total of MOP132 billion in 2012), one can then wonder why overall stocks are so low and whether the very lean profitability of such reserves really makes sense. Moreover, if financial reserves as a percentage of GDP appear to be well on par with Hong Kong, whereas Macao is supposed to have grown richer in relative terms, actual public spending is still lagging behind our neighboring SAR, where public expenditures now reach 20% of GDP against only 15.5% in Macao.
In the Index of Economic Freedom published yearly by the Heritage Foundation, an American conservative think-tank extremely free-market oriented, Hong Kong tops the list as the freest economy on the planet, followed by Singapore. Although I have strong reservations about the actual economic freedom of Hong Kong proper given that it is the one part in Asia that has made the word “tycoon” a household expression and brought to ultimate sophistication the oligopolistic nature of capitalism, it is nevertheless interesting to note that when it comes to macro-economic data, government expenditures as a percentage of GDP in Hong Kong and Singapore run higher than the tax burden as a percentage of GDP, whereas Macao, that ranks an honorable 26 in this index, clearly posts an inverted ratio: taxes as a percentage of GDP run at 34% in 2012, more than double the percentage of expenditures. 
If government expenditures are good for territories like Hong Kong and Singapore, why would not it be so for Macao? 
Furthermore, that inverted ratio between expenditures and taxation put Macao in a group of only four places in the world where such an imbalance exists, the three other places being Timor-Leste (166 in the ranking of 177 countries), Turkmenistan (169) and Eritrea (173), three countries characterized by widespread corruption, weak rule of law and crippled economic activity. Is that really fair to Macao? There is thus no doubt that the Macao government should spend more, but how and for what purposes should of course be opened to debate.

Published in Macau Daily Times, November 8 2013

Friday, October 25, 2013

Kapok: Under (tight) Scrutiny

On the very day newly elected legislators were taking their oath, several members of Macao Conscience, a political grouping created in 2009 that has been regularly staging civic happenings, openly challenging the government and denouncing by-and-large conflict of interests affecting Macao politics, took to the streets to directly question the “claim” that legislators are genuinely representing the interests of the Macao residents. At stake, the fact that 17 legislators out of 33, or 57% of them, are still either handpicked by the Chief Executive or returned by so-called “indirect elections” for which functional constituencies did not even bother to pay lip service to the idea of political competition, one of the requirements for an election to deserve its name. 
At the heart of their appeal for the Chief Executive to come up with an agenda for political reform that could lead to a universal franchise to elect the totality of the legislature lies the promise entrenched in article 68 of the Macao Basic Law that “a majority of the [Legislative Assembly’s] members shall be elected” as well as a UN Human Rights Committee recommendation issued last March stating that “Macao should consider taking all preparatory measures with a view to introducing universal and equal suffrage in conformity with the [International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights] as a matter of priority”. 
This group of a handful of demonstrators delivering their petition to the government’s headquarters was headed by none other than Jason Chao, president of the New Macao Association and unsuccessful candidate to the Assembly: if you cannot bring the fight “inside”, the least you can do is to continue carrying it “outside”.
Tight scrutiny of the legislators is the vocation trumpeted by the freshly launched website aptly entitled “Macao Legislators Supervision Station”: deploring the opacity of the workings of the Assembly, the website aims to offer a comprehensive track record of the voting behavior of each individual legislator, thus creating some kind of real-time accountability system by default. It also provides detailed information about the assets owned and positions occupied by each legislator as they appear in the recently advertised Declarations of Assets posted on the website of the Judicial Court of the Macao SAR
Additionally, one can find the complete contact details of each lawmaker, including postal address, website, Facebook account and email address, making it possible for any citizen to engage with his or her so-called representative(s). Unfortunately, only eleven law proposals and projects as well as resolutions and propositions of debate and hearings are for now taken into consideration, but more will be added in the future. Graphic and news flashes functionalities, again individualized, are still in the making, but the result of this illustrated data collection about our legislators is already pretty striking. There, one comes to realize the deep divide that exists between elected, selected and appointed legislators—the “rubber stamp” characterization of the two latter can truly be seen by a blind man! “King of the ballot box” Chan Meng Kam is on the one hand not shy at all in divulging his assets and yet his track record in the assembly shows that he has abstained or been absent 7 times out of 11—a populist with uncertain opinions? Such is not the case for Melinda Chan Mei Yi, the accessible lady of the people: she opposes or she approves, nothing short of a yes or no… but still, more on the side of the government!
Ultimately, even the new president of the Assembly, businessman turned politician Ho Iat Seng, as well as his deputy, trade unionist Lam Heong Sang, made very ostentatious declarations on the day of their inauguration that “supervision of the government’s actions” should definitely “be reinforced in the future”! Well, talking about conflict of interests, Mr Ho is also the only member from Macao sitting on the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the one institution supposed to interpret the Basic Law in case of a dispute and if all else has failed when it comes to enjoying a “high degree of autonomy”… With the upcoming election of the Chief Executive in 2014, there should be more to scrutinize!

Published in Macau Daily Times on October 25 2013.

Friday, October 11, 2013

Kapok: Wasted Opportunity

Right before the start of the legislative campaign I was asked to give a talk about “what to expect” from the elections. I basically raised five questions and provided simple and yet straightforward answers. Can we expect a vast overhaul of the Assembly? Certainly not! Can we expect new faces? Not really, and yet… Can we expect a few surprises? Very few, and yet… Can we expect a change in style in the campaign? Most probably as “bottom” seats will be hard-fought. Can we expect a change in the future workings of the Assembly? Only marginally, given the highly expectable overall composition of the new legislature. One soon realizes that political predictions cannot go too wrong if one accommodates enough semantic flexibility to tolerate a plurality of interpretation in one’s own prediction, or to put it more simply, if one pays due tribute to the idea that “everything is in everything”—a trick fortunetellers are well aware of. And yet, somehow, one would prefer to be really wrong sometimes, thus letting the exciting components of true surprise kick in and the benefit of uncertainty, though not fully unrestrained, bring its fair share of excitement. 
For directly elected members of the Assembly, results—not necessarily the most desirable ones, one must admit—yield two main lessons. First, the Democrats are not the highest vote-getters in these kind of elections any more, and thus will have to reflect deeply on a strategy that merely favor opposing and confronting the government, its many shortcomings and its cronies. In a more affluent society, one in which the have-nots are getting wealthier even though not at the same pace as the happy few, demands have to be formulated more in terms of alternative and therefore in displaying a capacity to propose and not only to oppose—a perspective fully acknowledged and marginally put in practice by José Pereira Coutinho. During the campaign, all the candidates, including the pro-business ones who have their reasonable share of responsibility in tilting the balance towards their own narrowly defined interests, voiced out the many hardships endured by common folks, an hypocrisy that made the Democrats’ past farsighted claims clearly inaudible. Second, organizational capacity is everything, although it plays along very dissimilar fault lines: Chan Meng Kam’s highly improbable triple win derives from his deep resources, an ethnic community base, a real populist flair for empathizing with ordinary people, the well-advertised supposed achievements of the incumbent, and an open support given by the challengers (junkets, new casino licensees and second-circle traditional political families) to old traditional vested interests (the three big Macao clans). In the case of Mak Soi Kun, the second highest vote getter, the support from the mainland was decisive and he is definitely what comes closer to a pro-Beijing camp in Macao. Finally, traditional associations shifted their support from pro-union to neighborhood related lists, as if Kwan Tsui Hang’s independence of mind had to somehow be trimmed. But potent organizational capacity also produced positive results for José Pereira Coutinho’s list and even, to a lesser degree, for Melinda Chan. The question is for the Democrats and even Coutinho if he wants to pursue further his legally innovative and policy-oriented role: how can any organization continue to be relevant for the community without proper resources (self-generated, on loan or granted)? The only answer lies in a real law on political parties, a law that would allow for a transparent and substantial public financing of political organizations that manage to garner significant results during election time.
Ultimately, only a meaningful assembly, one that is fully elected will make it possible for corruption to be curtailed, real competition to occur and sophisticated policy alternatives to be proposed: in the meantime we are stuck with royal appointments of the rust-roof “big gun” Fong Chi Keong, a close associate of the Ho’s, and the clumsy debut of a tender Ma. On what ground? Business, as usual.

Published in Macau Daily Times, October 11th 2013


Friday, September 27, 2013

Kapok: NIMBY, Macao style

Back in November 2010, Chief Executive Chui Sai On’s intent was clear and the direction chosen unhindered: “Regarding the development of tourism products, after heeding public opinion, and conducting analyses and assessments, the Government proposes an underground mall at Sai Van Lake Square as a trial location for developing a souvenir shopping complex and night market. This will showcase Macao cuisine and delicacies, and will become an integrated tourism project, after upgrading the relevant facilities through an open bidding process.” Of course, not everything went as planned.
First, the initial consultation for the project of a Sai Van lake permanent night market only occurred in November 2011. In the meantime, due processes for “public consultations”, the new fad in benevolent and opinion-led governance in lieu of democratic procedures, had changed: one round of public consultation would not be enough anymore, and a second round taking into account the lessons learnt from the first one would have to be organized. In that particular case, we were lucky rules had changed and government agencies had been slow in putting Mr Chui’s candid words into practice. The first public consultation was not only a disaster, but also marred by irregularities and opacity. Depending on who was doing the counting, opinions gathered ranged from a few dozen up to a maximum of 180, and only 8 such opinions had disapproved of the plan… But these results, without further comments, were only made public in October 2012(!), whereas regulations for public consultations state that it should take no more than 180 days after completion of the process.
Dissent and protest — too bad for consensus building — were soon to be heard: residents from the area started petitioning; concerned groups dealing with environmental and livelihood issues went marching and cycling around the lake, and even business interests made it clear as early as November 2012 that the whole project was plain wrong, both in intent and sustainability. Interestingly enough, David Chow Kam Fai, husband of legislator Melinda Chan Mei Yi and Macau Legend Development chief executive, expressed in a long op-ed published in the very conservative Macau Daily News his doubts about the “free market” side of the “open bidding process” — being the CEO of Fisherman’s Wharf Investment Ltd. might have made Mr. Chow pretty perceptive of the issue lying beneath less than fair competition. In reality, apart from the Civic and Municipal Affairs Bureau that had been entrusted with the project, only one public figure openly continued to support the scheme: legislator Chan Chak Mo. Incidentally representing the cultural sector in the Assembly, but mostly his own interests as the executive director of restaurant operator Future Bright Holdings Ltd, Mo nonetheless finds time to be the president of the Association of Macao Restaurant Merchants, the main organizer of the yearly Food Festival since 2001 precisely set on the banks of the… Sai Van lake!
So, a second consultation round was organized from December 2012 to March 2013. The press had already echoed vociferous sessions held with the general public, and even raucous exchanges with associations convened in closed-door meetings, including the usually pro-government General Union of the Neighborhood Associations and the Federation of Trade Unions that had expressed either a resolute opposition or suggested a relocation and a downsizing of the whole plan. But the official results of that consultation that came out on September 19 surpassed all expectations. More than 1,100 opinions were collected and an additional survey was conducted over the phone by the University of Macao with 1,529 respondents to envision what kind of facilities could be developed around the lake: overall, the initial night market project freely inspired by Clark Quay in Singapore and Tamsui night market in northern Taiwan was rejected by more than 70% of the population, and if a good 60% of the people surveyed over the phone want more facilities, they believe these should be more in line with green paths and walking/jogging tracks. From the “positioning”, the project itself to the localization, all three were heavily rejected: could this be the start of a “Not-In-My-Backyard” movement, with Macanese characteristics?

Published in Macau Daily Times, September 27th 2013

Friday, September 13, 2013

Kapok: What is to be done?

Reflecting on the past two weeks of intense debate and campaigning for the 14 seats that are up for grabs in the Legislative Assembly on September 15, one could simply say: so far so good.
On the side of the Electoral Commission, and even though there is room for improvement, the act has been cleaned up in many respects. Blatant infringements of the electoral law during the official two-weeks of campaigning have been mostly curbed, especially regarding wild and ubiquitous wall posting of promotional material in non-dedicated spaces—the only obvious exception being private lorries transporting visiting gamblers parading with posters of casino-related candidates. 
One might complain that things could have been even better, especially if some of the rules had been clarified earlier on, as exemplified in the polemic regarding posters adorning taxis. I would also note that prevention of abuses that are difficult to substantiate—especially in the case of connected associations patting voters on the shoulder through gifts and banquets beforehand —could more easily become a reality if the Electoral Affairs Commission had been operating long before March this year, and had had its ranks strengthened during the official campaign with, for example, volunteers from all the lists in the competition. In the case of some of the printed platforms being altered without prior approval of the lists, again an extended lapse of time—only one month as of now—between the publication of the acceptance to enter the fray and the start of the official campaign could help, especially if combined with a legal and transparent consultative mechanism. But let’s not be too harsh: Sunday will be a busy day for the Commission, starting with the monitoring of how voters get transported to the voting booths!
Now to the tone and style of the campaign per se. As expected, it has been buoyant, passionately debated and full of happenings—not quite Hong Kong or Taiwan yet, but getting there. 
The explosive mix of rejuvenation of the electorate, pervasiveness of electronic social media and added competition has translated into a “negative” campaigning style that has pushed the “old guard” on the defensive and helped groom a possible new generation of concerned citizens-turned-politicians. During debate time, traditional association representatives of the four hues—labor, women, neighborhood and patriotic—have been openly challenged. In being directly questioned, the “age-wise” constitutive element of their legitimacy, already pretty depleted in the case of the neighborhood folks, was seriously eroded. All the more so because a few minor lists had been precisely formed to oppose head-on well-established incumbent legislators, even the ones credited with a solid record in the Assembly—in the case of labor-oriented lists, the rustproof UPD was being challenged by at least three alternative ones! Ultimately, not only “age” was being put into question, but also whether or not these associations were “doing a good job”, delivering on their promises and possibly doing so in a consistent manner. Capacity was thus doubted. This attrition of confidence became even more salient for the casino-backed candidates, although the equation for them appeared to be early on “not too lose too much” rather than registering significant gains. If the latest rallying slogans are to be trusted, one can feel that worry has started to get hold of even the most confident heavyweights. Of course, claiming that the house is about to be engulfed by flames in the last days of the campaign has always been a classic strategic eleventh hour politicking recourse. And yet…
What Is to Be Done? When Lenin penned his pamphlet back in 1901, his main argument was that to convert the working class to Marxism despite all the odds, a political party made up of a “vanguard” should be formed to spread the ideology. Communism is gone, but Democracy is still an aspiration. A high turnout rate should probably help a different kind of vanguard making it in.

Published in Macau Daily Times, September 13th 2013

Friday, August 30, 2013

Kapok: Of expected uncertainties

To all the people who believe that the electoral campaign starting on August 31st and leading to the vote of “9.15” is an absolute travesty of democracy I say: You are wrong! Two reasons for the professional cynics to refrain from exercising their disheartening doubtful scorn for electoral politics in the SAR context: First of all, because quite a good number of very respectful, experienced and committed candidates are going to take that campaign very seriously—for that reason alone, comfy disdain is shameful; and then, one can indeed expect far more competition than the widespread “done deal” common sense would like us to believe—it is not only an additional two seats that are going to be contended, but at least five and possibly seven out of 14 opened to universal suffrage.
What is true though is that the government will still hold at least 80% of support in the new Assembly, whatever happens: Out of a total of 33 legislators, seven are directly appointed by the Chief Executive, 12 are endorsed—no real election there despite all the claims—by functional constituencies tightly intertwined together and with the government, and at the very least eight elected lawmakers will never fail to be supportive of the government’s policies, whatever disagreements they might have expressed—and that goes beyond party discipline and is more in tune with self-serving subservience. But then, alternative voices are needed, and this is why, despite the traditional patron-client relations that exist in Macao and the highly restrictive voting system that is being used for these elections (the inglorious modified D’Hondt method), we could be in for a few surprises—uncertainty in essence is democratic!
Despite the lack of reliable studies about voter behaviors—far too often we hear that people are not interested in politics in Macao, and yet samples and questionnaires are either unsatisfactory or biased—it has become rather obvious that a significant segment of the population is quite unhappy with the overall performance of the Legislature and only four lawmakers make the cut above 60% of satisfaction as reported last year by the Association of Macao New Vision: two democrats, Ng Kuok Cheong and Au Kam San, an independent legislator cum-civil servant representative José Pereira Coutinho and Kwan Tsui Hang (traditional Macao Federation of Trade Unions). The worst performers among the directly elected legislators are all from the business sector and especially casino-related—the last of them all being Angela Leong who also holds the record in her category for being the most absent in plenary sessions in 2012/2013. This disgruntlement regarding business-related legislators, the growing strength of the democrats who have been the highest vote-getters in the three previous elections and who are now becoming ever more assertive (aiming at five seats with three lists), the decline of traditional associations (why else offer Chan Hong a seat in an indirect constituency if the Kaifong was so confident?), and an electorate that has become younger at one end (52,000 voters out of a total of 277,000 are aged 29 and below) and more critical for the largest cohorts composed of people in their 50s (74,000 of them) have to be factored in. Then incumbents (Chan Wai Chi, the No. 2 on Ng Kuok Cheong’s list; Melinda Chan Mei Yi, the one least well elected in 2009), new comers on well-established lists (Si Ka Lon, Chan Meng Kam’s No. 2; Lam Lon Wai, Kwan Tsui Hang’s No. 2; and Wong Kit Cheng, Ho Ian Song’s No. 2) as well as novel challengers (Agnes Lam and Jason Chao) all stand an almost equal chance of winning.
Combine the need and craving for change with an unduly limited window of competitive opportunity, and you are almost for sure heading for a bloodthirsty electoral clash, one in which social media could very well serve an extreme role in twisting the campaign towards a negative style, thus exposing the hypocrisy of a few and the distrust in many. And in Macao, nobody needs to be reminded that “a throw of the dice will never abolish chance.”

Published in Macau Daily Times, August 30th 2013

Friday, August 16, 2013

Kapok: Like it or not…

Just coming back to Macao from my summer break, I was greeted by both a typhoon 8 signal when I landed and then later on the usual Q&A session with Chief Executive Chui Sai On at the Legislative Assembly when I resumed work. Although unrelated, the synchronicity of the events—with a good 24 hours time lag—got me thinking: when does not much become something, and is there a deeper meaning to much ado about nothing?
As far as Typhoon Utor is concerned, caprices of nature are tricky to ascertain. Although there are always three clearly identified phases in the materialization of a typhoon, one can always expect the unexpected, as the Hong Kong film title goes. Before it hits, the air grows in density and an unusually serene kind of atmosphere settles in. Then comes the real thing, and depending on the course and strength of the typhoon, one is almost certain to witness strong swirls of wind and sudden passages of dense rain curtains. Finally, while the typhoon leaves, diminutive showers and lingering gusts are accompanied by the first assessments of the actual damage that was caused. As it is often the case with a signal 8 that equates to a “severe typhoon”, people viewing this for the first time and/or into apocalypse-type experience often get disappointed: social media in the past two days were brisking with derogatory comments about the actual potency of Utor. But precaution is of utmost importance in this kind of situation and the characterization of any given typhoon is a scientific function of the strength of the gusts and the closeness of the epicenter. One can always wonder whether it was hoisted too soon or lowered too late, this is not up to a rule of the thumb, whatever the cost for the economy. Basically, disappointment is a matter of perception not of reality.
Of course Chui Sai On’s own performance during a Q&A session at the Legislative Assembly seems quite remote from natural cataclysm forecast and appraisal, despite the claim that “political crafting” matters and that it is done under the auspices of “scientific governance” here. Mr Chui’s answers are indeed highly predictable and as one of my students nicely puts it: why call it an “engagement” with the members of the legislature if questions and answers are respectively sent and written beforehand, and ultimately read by the Chief Executive—and here I would myself add that the CE uninspiringly stumbles through tables of statistics in order to hide any sense of vision? In November, questions to the CE after the presentation of his policy address correspond to his duty as stated in the Macao Basic Law. Civil servants thus spend months preparing for questions that are not arranged beforehand, so that the CE can indeed look “executive”. In April and August, rules are different and the exercise is meant to temper worries (no duty there): right before a usually agitated May Day in spring and right at the closing of the legislative session in summer, and this year around just one month before the legislative elections. Bearing that in mind, I do believe that the Macao Government Information Bureau should have refrained from adding a passing comment on the referring webpage to watch Mr Chui’s live broadcast that the CE “attaches great importance to the interactions with the Legislative Assembly”: the wording sounds propaganda-like and the format is indeed a mockery of interaction.
Well, we are still in the Ghost Month (August 7 to September 4 this year) during which ghosts and spirits are roaming the realm of the living in search of souls. Offerings are meant to tame prowling spirits and it is indeed an ominous month to start any new venture!

Published in Macau Daily Times, August 16 2013

Friday, July 05, 2013

Kapok: In tune with the times

Edward Snowden and his challenge to the mighty US government have now become a modernized version of David vs. Goliath, and Snowden himself a household name for courage and determination in the fight for the defense of civil liberties. Knowledge and the circulation of data have replaced the sling, but the story remains the same: the seemingly invincible can be defeated if one is dexterous enough to find a hole in the armor. By exposing several classified intelligence programs run by the American and British intelligence services, among which we find the interception of US and European telephone metadata (the ins and outs of phone calls and not their actual content) as well as Internet surveillance programs such as PRISM and Tempora, Edward Snowden, a former technical contractor with the CIA and NSA, has become the epitome of what is now commonly characterized as a “whistleblower”, simply defined by Princeton’s WordNet as “an informant who exposes wrongdoing within an organization in the hope of stopping it.” What is at stake here is a possible abuse of power by the state apparatus and whether these surveillance programs are duly overseen by both the judiciary and the legislative so that encroachment over civil rights remain minimal and justifiable. Ultimately, there is a balance to be struck between one’s founding values—justice and liberty—on the one hand and the indisputable primacy of the safety that each and every state is supposed to guaranty to its own citizens on the other hand. Blowing the whistle in that case was to demand for more scrutiny over a possible imbalance between one and the other.
Whistleblowers come in every color and every hue. Among the most high profile and charismatic as well as controversial figures of a whistleblower, Wikileaks’ founder Julian Assange is clearly unmatched. Snowden in comparison appears far more accidental and unassuming, although his odyssey to escape prosecutions in America has captivated the world’s imagination—from Hawaii to Moscow with a short spell in Hong Kong. Despite all the present tensions between Russia and the US, especially about Syria and Iran, Putin himself has declared that Snowden could only stay in his country if he stopped “leaking secrets”! States of the World, unite against the whistleblowers! It is then no wonder that when Dr. Jiang Yanyong, the chief physician of the 301 Military Hospital in Beijing, sent his letter to denounce the cover up of the SARS epidemic back in April 2003, neither Chinese Central Television-4 (state-run) or PhoenixTV (state-connected) decided to report the story. It is only when The Wall Street Journal and Time picked up the story that authorities in China were forced to react. In Snowden’s case, the British Guardian and the American New York Times did play a crucial role. In Macao, whistleblower-cum-politician Jason Chao has to go one step further and resort to pose as a journalist—a citizen journalist to be more precise—because civil society, including the media, is so embroiled in a patron-client relation with the state that the Gramscian understanding of it as one of ‘hegemony’ and the ‘manufacture of consent’ has become prevalent.
Of course I find it all the more ironic to write this column on a 4th of July, a day on which the US celebrate the fact “that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” I cannot help but think that no other country on the planet, despite all its imperfections and misdeeds, has ever held these truths so evidently. A country that always found in its own ranks the vital force to better itself cannot be embarrassed: it can only grow stronger!

Published in Macau Daily Times, July 5th 2013

Friday, June 21, 2013

Kapok: More or less

It has become a habit: when things are being advertised or promoted in Macao, “more” has become too often the gauge for “better,” and in some instances even “good”. So much so that I have run out of half-smart, sarcastic, catchy titles to characterize this “infantile disorder”, as Lenin might have put it: “Quantity vs. Quality”, “More vs. Better”, “The Tyranny of Numbers”, etc. How predictable this sorry state of affairs is.
True, “more” has the potential to improve a situation, especially when one is talking about a market economy. We are better off with six gambling operators than when we had one. Not only have the growth figures and number of visitors skyrocketed but the quality and diversity of services, and what is on offer in town have expanded to an unthinkable level from just a decade ago. Even in the less than sympathetic article, published by CNN.com this week, entitled “The dark side of Asia's gambling Mecca,” the figure that sticks is that Macao surpassed Vegas for gambling revenues back in 2006 and is presently six times bigger. All this despite the unpalatable suspected association between several junket operators and triads, or the downgrading by the American State Department of our SAR in 2012 when it comes to human trafficking. 
Sometimes, I wish that we had more: number of hospital beds, social and economic housing units, wholesale importers of meat and fish, levels of electricity pricing for households, etc. Sometimes, I believe that we should have less: number of public bus operators, casino outlets, cosmetic as well as dry-cake and beef jerky or luxury brand shops, parking meters, or even the amazing variety of street furniture. Almost always I feel that we deserve better: road condition, traffic, environment, healthcare and education services, housing maintenance, sport facilities, etc. Apart from food outlets and hotel accommodation, the need for improvement is in every mind. 
The same goes for politics and especially elections. As far as the total number of voters is concerned, “more” is definitely better: 277,153 registered voters for this year’s legislative elections translate into 28,445 new voters compared to 2009, and more than half of these new voters are aged 29 or below. If we take into consideration the previous turnout rate (about 60%), that basically means that this new youth vote determines the election of one seat! Then of course, additional seats, even though limited to four, create new opportunities. New faces and ideas feel that their time has finally come. But then, things become tricky. First of all the voting system that is in practice in Macao for both direct and indirect elections—a system adopted in the early 1990s and thus predating the handover—makes it almost impossible for a candidate placed in third position on any given list to make the cut and is therefore conducive to an over inflated number of lists. Hence, the democrats lining up three lists this year (against two in 2009 and only one in 2005) in the hope of maximizing their chances to get at least four members of the New Macau Association elected (against three today). The danger lies in the dispersion of votes, and thus requires strict discipline in distributing one’s support. Finally, things are yet undecided for “indirectly elected” seats. I have many times pointed out that indirectly elected legislators are highly illegitimate—apart from breaking the record of absenteeism in the Assembly— especially because both in 2005 and 2009 they never had to submit to a vote, even limited to a vote by collective entities—they were merely selected and endorsed by their peers on single lists. This year around, the rules have changed: an election is required. In some instances, that won’t make any difference: the two candidates from the Federation of Trade Unions running for the Labor seats have been endorsed by 80% of the members of that particular sector…and yet, come the time of secret ballot, abstention could mean something! And why not multiple lists in other sectors?

Published in Macau Daily Times, June 21st 2013

Friday, June 14, 2013

Kapok: Hell is other people

French existentialist Jean-Paul Sartre acknowledged that the famous sentence — “Hell is other people” — he included in the play No Exit (1944) had often, if not always, been misunderstood. People assumed that what he meant was that our relationships with other people always have a degree of malevolence, and thus that our relationships with others are always “infernal” by nature. He later explained that what he really wanted to express was that IF our relationships to others were distorted and malign THEN other people could only be seen as “hell”. He further asserted that “the other” was the most important part of us, in order to understand ourselves. Without the other and an open mind to otherness, there is no way one can truthfully understand who he or she is. And yet, if one becomes overly dependent on judgments made about them by others, then one’s life indeed becomes hell. This distorted view of the “other”, the foreign, the alien is exactly what is poisoning the debate - or the lack thereof - regarding the government’s proposal to assist foreign students who have completed their diplomas in Macao to gain easier access to the local labor market.
Ever since the government announced that it was looking at adopting a facilitating policy pertaining to non-resident students in mid-May, debate has been fierce, especially because few details were given on the triggering factors, workings, projected consequences and scheduling of such a plan. Democrats and union representatives have been the most vocal in echoing concerns muttered by the population — as much because of the lack of particulars as an “instinctive” protective move in favor of Macao’s local labor force. For a liberal mind and an educator, this comes as a surprise, at least regarding the Democrats (unionists lost their “internationalist” Marxist approach in the 1970s). 
More than anything else, young people from Macao need to learn to compete and prepare to be challenged. Protective, not to say shielding, measures can only be transitional. In France, when one talks about “national preference”, such attitudes are immediately associated with a far-right and xenophobic political movement. When a French right-
wing Minister of the Interior issued a circular in May 2011 that restricted the number of non-European Union foreign students allowed to stay and work in France after completing their diplomas, it sparked an uproar, and the circular was immediately abrogated by the new socialist government, sworn in May 2012. It was not the idea that being “selective” was wrong per se, but that one could not claim to attract talented people to study in the territory — an embodiment of soft power — and at the same time refuse these talented minds to stay on if they chose to do so. Are the Democrats and unionists in Macao less liberal-minded? I believe not. What is at stake here is the ever-deepening wariness between, on the one hand, representatives who derive their power from the people and, on the other hand, the government along with the alienated business elite that supports it.
The failure of the motion calling for a plenary debate on the proposal to allow non-local students to work in Macao on June 11 in the Legislative Assembly is a sad reminder that the gap is widening to a point that will almost certainly be impossible to mend; among the nine who supported the motion, we find three democrats, four unionists (including an independent), the elected representative from the neighborhood associations and a populist born-
again “lady of the people”…out of nine, eight are directly elected legislators! The main arguments aired by the 10 naysayers have to do with the excessive politicization of the debate in the run up to the elections in September (none of them are actually directly elected) and the lack of time left in the present session of the Legislative Assembly. It is rather unique indeed to hear “politicians” declaring that they don’t want to engage in political debate, and for business-minded people to deny the benefits of productivity gains: why did the government introduce the proposal in May in the first place and isn’t there at least two months left before the end of the parliamentary session?

Published in Macau Daily Times, June 14th 2013

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Kapok: Pluto-mediocracy

It was indeed a small piece of news: a local tycoon’s construction company being granted a renovation work contract for a government building without having to go through a public tender. This is not illegal: the laws that apply make room for exceptions to “public tendering,” and in this case the justification given for the MOP27 million contract was that “security issues” were involved, as the renovation work would take place next to the government headquarters, thus requiring “special and confidential” treatment. Yet I could not help reminding myself what Au Kam San, a democrat legislator, once had said: “exceptions have become the rule in Macao,” giving evidence that out of a few hundred construction and renovation projects that should have gone through public tendering, only a handful had actually complied. In that particular case, the company involved, Man Kan Ltd., had already been granted at least four such contracts by the government, as reported by Hoje Macau, and “all the renovation works for government buildings since the handover” if we trust José Pereira Coutinho, another vocal and independent legislator. Moreover, Man Kan Ltd. is not run by any mini-tycoon… its chairman of the board is none other than Fong Chi Keong, who happens to be also the president of the Association of Building Contractors and Developers, the vice-president of the Macao Chamber of Commerce, the chairperson of the Kiang Wu Charitable Association (founded in 1871) that runs the Kiang Wu Hospital, the chairman of the Macao Daily Readers’ Charity Fund that is behind the charity “Walk for a Million”… and also a legislator, sitting as one of the four indirectly-elected legislators representing the business interests in Macao.
Mr Fong is a well-known figure, and he claims ancestry in the territory over some 200 years, and thus has formed connections that cut across the hold of the four main families (the two Ho, Ma and Chui). A round face adorned with a crew cut and a sharp gaze behind large metal-framed spectacles, he is also known for his coarse language, so much so that a Youtube channel called the “Cannon Channel” 大砲頻道 is dedicated to his many blunders and less than subtle passing judgments. Many times over he has felt threatened by youth, questioning the sanity of young “agent provocateurs” manipulated by old democrats or characterizing young people daring to voice out their frustrations as “losers”. Of course all this is compensated by lavish charity spending in several youth-oriented ventures, as Mr Fong has allegedly given away a hundred million yuan to the Nanhai district for educational purposes—all the more commendable for a man who barely finished high school. For sure Mr Fong does not really approve of the concept of accountability, and he often reacts very buoyantly albeit senselessly when his stewardship is being questioned, whether it concerns the final destination of the money raised by the “Walk for a Million”, the discrepancy in salary raises at Kiang Wu Hospital or even his excessive absenteeism in the legislature… Only his Man Kan Ltd. dealings manage to keep him quiet!
A mere “edit (slightly) and paste” of what was once noted by the great German sociologist Max Weber perfectly applies to Mr Fong: “There are two ways of making politics one’s vocation: Either one lives ‘for’ politics or one lives ‘off’ politics”. In fact, the two often come together: one who lives for a cause also lives off that cause. The problem arises when one exclusively lives “off” politics!

Published in Macau Daily Times, May 24th 2013

Friday, May 10, 2013

Kapok: Tyrannies of Numbers

It is indeed an oft-repeated mantra regarding China: one of the issue that blurs our analytical perspective is that numbers are big there; and when I say big, I mean huge; and when I say huge, I clearly imply massive. Economic growth, population, size of cities, Internet users, and members of the Communist Party: everything is enormous, beyond any other country except for India. But then numbers in India, although the country has been part of the original and fast rising BRIC league right from the start (expanding now in BRICS, BRICSI and even TIMBI!), have been regarded up until recently as an impediment rather than a blessing: illiteracy rate, criminality, the multiplicity of states and union territories making the federation more fragile, and even the “inferiority complex of the majority” of Hindus vs. Muslims, etc. Now that the “demographic dividend” along with the benefit of “free thinking” fuelling modernized entrepreneurship seem to have shifted in favor of India, China’s horizon appears to be rather darkened because of its outdated “one-child policy” along with its very constrained paths to innovation, enlightenment far too often falling victim of plutocracy. Size does matter, but the very nature of the social, economic and political fabric of a nation will ultimately matter even more.
Macao has to suffer from its own tyranny of numbers: insolent years of GDP growth at a time of world recession; gambling revenues six times the ones of Vegas; largest casino premises in the world; biggest water show on the planet; one of the world’s lowest rates of unemployment; and of course one of the most indecent government surplus in the world when countries considered to be birthplaces of modern civilization are selling off national treasures to any investment fund, sovereign or less so, showing up with cash-laden briefcases. When a government is running a deficit and credit becomes scarce, austerity measures or budget rigor, as we now call it in France, become a necessity—yet the timing of such measures is still hotly debated. When a government is barely spending 45% of its revenues, what do we call it? Preemptive rigor or blindness to much needed investments for the future?
Wednesday’s tropical shower should act as a wake up call, a strident whistle blow in the deafening silence of ineptitude. In just three and a half hours, one meter of water fell on Macao, cascading in steep staircases, submerging roads, tossing vehicles on the side and flooding car parks and ground floors in several parts of the city—some below sea-level, but many above. I incidentally happened to be driving at 8pm that day, and witnessed first-hand the chaotic stir all of a sudden engulfing the city, from peninsula to far-off Coloane, bridges included. For some reason it reminded me of the 2011 Bangkok flooding that took months to recede. Nothing of that magnitude in Macao, and yet the lessons from the Thai capital’s upheaval found some strange echoes in Macao’s own commotion. Bangkok happened to be a manmade disaster brought by years of unrestrained urban development that had totally destroyed one of the oldest and most sophisticated drainage-canal systems. Macao’s drainage system has never been that sophisticated, but it is clearly obsolete and certainly not on par with the needs and challenges brought by ten years of fast and furious economic development. We indeed have Third World problems in a First World territory with First World revenues: luckily for us, the pouring lasted just a few hours and the next day was sunny.

Published in Macau Daily Times, May 11th 2013

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Kapok: Look who’s talking!


Although I would not challenge being characterized as a “tree-hugger”, I would not consider myself an “animal lover”. For me, dogs are all about unpleasant dribbling, offensive wet dog smell and untimely walks in the woods for not-so-hygienic unloading. But it is one thing to show no great empathy for pets, it is an entirely different matter not to support legal provisions to put an end to cruelty towards animals. The former has to do with my own personal inclinations, the latter with the degree of advancement of a civilization.
There are many interesting aspects to the project of law that was introduced by José Pereira Coutinho, which pertains to the “Legal status and protection of animals”. This was rebuked in a plenary session of the Macao Legislative Assembly on April 22nd.
It is important to note that it was a project of law (initiated by legislators, in this case only one), which is not to be confused with a law proposal (initiated by the government). Contrary to what is commonly heard, a few projects initiated by legislators have successfully been made into laws. For example, the very comprehensive Personal Data Protection Law that was passed in 2005 is the most well known, but it is not unique. Other examples include the Law requiring the systematic advice of a lawyer in judicial procedures, or the Law regulating Internet Cafés.
These laws are the highest testimonies of the revered principle of the separation of powers, which is enshrined in Macao's Basic Law. Legislator Coutinho clearly displays political motivation when he introduced six laws in a single week, but contrary to what Legislator Chan Chak Mo has argued, that is to say “mere politicking” by Coutinho in an election year, Coutinho’s actions clearly indicate that some legislators are actually doing their job. In the end, just as “some animals are more equal than others”, some legislators are indeed, more legitimate than others.
The project of law was voted down in its first stage, during the first reading in plenary session. The legislators had plenty of time to carefully examine the 30 articles of the law and the notes that accompanied it, as it was introduced in February, some two months before last Monday’s vote. But the project never made it beyond the political initiative of its introduction and will never be discussed in a permanent commission.
Those who either abstained or opposed gave several reasons. Some argued that the project was not precise enough: was it about domestic animals, or animals at large? Could we still enjoy eating ducks and chicken after the law would be passed? Article 14 of the project is very clear about that, just like the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Ordinance passed in 2006 in Hong Kong: what is to be prevented and punished is cruelty to animals, including in the slaughtering process. But most of the critics have concentrated on the supposed untimeliness of the project as it was released only four months before the end of the legislative session. However, one could argue that almost half of the 2012/2013 session still remains and that the Assembly record for law passing ranges from 6 to 27 laws passed in a single session. Coincidentally, the most vocal opponent regarding “timing” was legislator Vitor Cheung Lup Kwan, who holds the record amongst all legislators for lowest attendance to plenary sessions during the two previous terms in 2011 and 2012. Being a legislator is a full time job!
In the end 4 voted in favor, 9 abstained and 9 opposed, totaling 22 out of 29. Why were seven legislators missing? Why was the legislator, who is closest to the company that runs the infamous Canidrome of Macau (see here for local news and here for international coverage), absent from the vote? Untimely questions maybe?

Published in Macau Daily Times, April 26 2013.