Kapok: Of expected uncertainties

To all the people who believe that the electoral campaign starting on August 31st and leading to the vote of “9.15” is an absolute travesty of democracy I say: You are wrong! Two reasons for the professional cynics to refrain from exercising their disheartening doubtful scorn for electoral politics in the SAR context: First of all, because quite a good number of very respectful, experienced and committed candidates are going to take that campaign very seriously—for that reason alone, comfy disdain is shameful; and then, one can indeed expect far more competition than the widespread “done deal” common sense would like us to believe—it is not only an additional two seats that are going to be contended, but at least five and possibly seven out of 14 opened to universal suffrage.
What is true though is that the government will still hold at least 80% of support in the new Assembly, whatever happens: Out of a total of 33 legislators, seven are directly appointed by the Chief Executive, 12 are endorsed—no real election there despite all the claims—by functional constituencies tightly intertwined together and with the government, and at the very least eight elected lawmakers will never fail to be supportive of the government’s policies, whatever disagreements they might have expressed—and that goes beyond party discipline and is more in tune with self-serving subservience. But then, alternative voices are needed, and this is why, despite the traditional patron-client relations that exist in Macao and the highly restrictive voting system that is being used for these elections (the inglorious modified D’Hondt method), we could be in for a few surprises—uncertainty in essence is democratic!
Despite the lack of reliable studies about voter behaviors—far too often we hear that people are not interested in politics in Macao, and yet samples and questionnaires are either unsatisfactory or biased—it has become rather obvious that a significant segment of the population is quite unhappy with the overall performance of the Legislature and only four lawmakers make the cut above 60% of satisfaction as reported last year by the Association of Macao New Vision: two democrats, Ng Kuok Cheong and Au Kam San, an independent legislator cum-civil servant representative José Pereira Coutinho and Kwan Tsui Hang (traditional Macao Federation of Trade Unions). The worst performers among the directly elected legislators are all from the business sector and especially casino-related—the last of them all being Angela Leong who also holds the record in her category for being the most absent in plenary sessions in 2012/2013. This disgruntlement regarding business-related legislators, the growing strength of the democrats who have been the highest vote-getters in the three previous elections and who are now becoming ever more assertive (aiming at five seats with three lists), the decline of traditional associations (why else offer Chan Hong a seat in an indirect constituency if the Kaifong was so confident?), and an electorate that has become younger at one end (52,000 voters out of a total of 277,000 are aged 29 and below) and more critical for the largest cohorts composed of people in their 50s (74,000 of them) have to be factored in. Then incumbents (Chan Wai Chi, the No. 2 on Ng Kuok Cheong’s list; Melinda Chan Mei Yi, the one least well elected in 2009), new comers on well-established lists (Si Ka Lon, Chan Meng Kam’s No. 2; Lam Lon Wai, Kwan Tsui Hang’s No. 2; and Wong Kit Cheng, Ho Ian Song’s No. 2) as well as novel challengers (Agnes Lam and Jason Chao) all stand an almost equal chance of winning.
Combine the need and craving for change with an unduly limited window of competitive opportunity, and you are almost for sure heading for a bloodthirsty electoral clash, one in which social media could very well serve an extreme role in twisting the campaign towards a negative style, thus exposing the hypocrisy of a few and the distrust in many. And in Macao, nobody needs to be reminded that “a throw of the dice will never abolish chance.”

Published in Macau Daily Times, August 30th 2013

Kapok: Like it or not…

Just coming back to Macao from my summer break, I was greeted by both a typhoon 8 signal when I landed and then later on the usual Q&A session with Chief Executive Chui Sai On at the Legislative Assembly when I resumed work. Although unrelated, the synchronicity of the events—with a good 24 hours time lag—got me thinking: when does not much become something, and is there a deeper meaning to much ado about nothing?
As far as Typhoon Utor is concerned, caprices of nature are tricky to ascertain. Although there are always three clearly identified phases in the materialization of a typhoon, one can always expect the unexpected, as the Hong Kong film title goes. Before it hits, the air grows in density and an unusually serene kind of atmosphere settles in. Then comes the real thing, and depending on the course and strength of the typhoon, one is almost certain to witness strong swirls of wind and sudden passages of dense rain curtains. Finally, while the typhoon leaves, diminutive showers and lingering gusts are accompanied by the first assessments of the actual damage that was caused. As it is often the case with a signal 8 that equates to a “severe typhoon”, people viewing this for the first time and/or into apocalypse-type experience often get disappointed: social media in the past two days were brisking with derogatory comments about the actual potency of Utor. But precaution is of utmost importance in this kind of situation and the characterization of any given typhoon is a scientific function of the strength of the gusts and the closeness of the epicenter. One can always wonder whether it was hoisted too soon or lowered too late, this is not up to a rule of the thumb, whatever the cost for the economy. Basically, disappointment is a matter of perception not of reality.
Of course Chui Sai On’s own performance during a Q&A session at the Legislative Assembly seems quite remote from natural cataclysm forecast and appraisal, despite the claim that “political crafting” matters and that it is done under the auspices of “scientific governance” here. Mr Chui’s answers are indeed highly predictable and as one of my students nicely puts it: why call it an “engagement” with the members of the legislature if questions and answers are respectively sent and written beforehand, and ultimately read by the Chief Executive—and here I would myself add that the CE uninspiringly stumbles through tables of statistics in order to hide any sense of vision? In November, questions to the CE after the presentation of his policy address correspond to his duty as stated in the Macao Basic Law. Civil servants thus spend months preparing for questions that are not arranged beforehand, so that the CE can indeed look “executive”. In April and August, rules are different and the exercise is meant to temper worries (no duty there): right before a usually agitated May Day in spring and right at the closing of the legislative session in summer, and this year around just one month before the legislative elections. Bearing that in mind, I do believe that the Macao Government Information Bureau should have refrained from adding a passing comment on the referring webpage to watch Mr Chui’s live broadcast that the CE “attaches great importance to the interactions with the Legislative Assembly”: the wording sounds propaganda-like and the format is indeed a mockery of interaction.
Well, we are still in the Ghost Month (August 7 to September 4 this year) during which ghosts and spirits are roaming the realm of the living in search of souls. Offerings are meant to tame prowling spirits and it is indeed an ominous month to start any new venture!

Published in Macau Daily Times, August 16 2013