Kapok: Money matters

In any polity of the world, public spending does matter. In fact, public finance is at the crux of public policy making and constitutes a necessary reality check on the transformative power of government. With money, governments are supposed to be empowered to do aplenty, even though, ever since the 1980s, worries about misspending and plain wastefulness have fuelled questions about the right size for the state – big or small – and of course the realm and span of state capacity and action. Having money does not necessarily make one smart, quite the contrary as our Dutch friends know very well. But being too frugal, either because of a lack of means or excessive cautiousness, is equally not a guarantee of effectiveness.

Earning more but spending less!

The execution of the budget of the Macao government was released last week and is under scrutiny in the Legislative Assembly. It concerns only the year 2014, and this reminds us that up to two weeks ago the one institution supposed to supervise the executive regarding spending public wealth was either working on a report for 2013 – in October 2015! – or simply and blindly trusting the monthly figures from the Finance department. For reasons only known to itself, the second permanent committee of the Assembly never finds the time to scrutinise interim reports in April or May. With the unfortunate and headline-grabbing suicide of the Director-General of the Macau Customs last Friday, the discussion over the budget has faded in the distant background, whereas the Chief Executive will present his policy address on November 17.
Clearly, it deserves attention, and slightly more than eye-catching and simplistic headlines regarding supposedly astounding surplus slides or inflated concerns about allegedly exploding public expenses.
First of all, the budget tells us that the Macao government is still very rich. We have accumulated some MOP246 billion in fiscal reserve and MOP131 billion in foreign currency reserves. In 2014, despite a gambling downturn of 7 months out of 12, we managed to add a good MOP77 billion to the fiscal reserve – actually more than in 2013! Bearing in mind that the government only spent MOP67 billion even without being that mindful, it can thus continue to operate for a few years – 5 or 6 – even if it waives all taxes, including the one on gambling!
Then of course, one has to look at the execution proper and the government has been pretty consistent over the years in downplaying its expected revenues and inflating its anticipated expenses. If the gap has narrowed compared to 2013 (earning 30% more and spending 30% less!), there is still a discrepancy of 10% more for 20% less in 2014, despite a slight contraction of 2.5% in gross gaming revenues (GGR).
Of course, with an expected dive of more than 35% in GGR and more than 25% in GDP for 2015, concerns seem legitimate. And yet…. The Finance Department already tells us that as of September 2015, the government has earned far more than it has spent, and based on previous fanciful anticipations, we can conclude that as of October 2015, all the administration’s bills for the whole of 2015 are already covered!

All bills covered!

Then comes the fallacy of lavish spending, especially on civil servants’ salaries and wealth-partaking social sweeteners. Salaries of personnel only represent 22.6% of overall spending, pretty much the same as France, clearly less than Denmark and slightly more than Hong Kong, but definitely less than anybody else as a percentage of GDP (less than 4% whereas it is 13.3% in France). Then, as an overall share of GDP, public spending represents about 15% in Macao, against close to 39% in the USA or more than 57% in France, and about 20% in Hong Kong.
Far from spending too much, the Macao government is actually spending too little, especially on public infrastructure, in all its guises. Lost opportunities and an absence of substantial investment in the future is more detrimental than lavish spending. But this grim picture concerns 2014. Since then, a new team has been ushered in…

Published in Macau Daily Times, November 6th 2015