Kapok: Now, a #fishballrevolution?

What just happened in Hong Kong should not leave us indifferent, and deserves better than short rehashes of the most police-friendly article of the South China Morning Post or anxiety-conjuring front-page pictures of rioters (no demonstrators there…) being “appropriately” contained by duty-blissed (and heavily-equipped) constables. First, because even though it happened in the early hours of the second day of the fiery fire monkey year, “squabble day” (Chek Hau) actually falls on the third day, so, clearly, the whole episode marks more than the calendar! Second, because even pro-Beijing legislator Regina Ip—the one who, as secretary for security, failed to sell article 23 to Hong Kong people back in 2002-2003—views it as somehow reflecting the inability of the Hong Kong government to tackle the deep-rooted issues affecting the SAR. And finally, because these events hold a universal message that not even our neon-glowing out-of-this-world gaming paradise should ignore.

Scenes of street-battle in Mong Kok happening at a time of supposedly festive and rejuvenating mood helped capture our imagination, and added to the sense of “disproportionate” incongruity between the trigger—the expulsion of illegal street hawkers by police-backed agents of the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department around Langham Place—and images of intense clashes between policemen and demonstrators, possibly not seen since the 1960s. Soon characterized as “riots”, as to delegitimize the whole affair (and probably frustrate some insurance claims!), what had started as a “quarrel” between the hawkers and officials grew into fierce opposition to state authority after a so-called “localist” group, Hong Kong Indigenous, encouraged people through social media to come and support the hawkers. Violence erupted: cobblestones were dislodged from the pavement and thrown at the police; chubby orange-colored rubbish bins set on fire; windows and surveillance cameras broken; police sticks heavily fell on necks, backs and shoulders; warning shots were fired; blood was spilled and participants as well as policemen injured; journalists were threatened by both sides and arrests were made—dozens of them. Yet, at the height of the confrontation, no more than 300 people participated!

All that sound and fury for a “fish ball revolution” of 300? And if violence is to be utterly condemned and responsibilities have yet to be fully established what is this protest in aid of?

In an enlightened op-ed, Jason Y. Ng makes a direct connection between these events and the Jasmine Revolution—I immediately thought of the 228 in Taiwan back in 1947—with the warning that one should “never underestimate what the little guy can do.” For Ng, who equates the hawkers with Mohamed Bouazizi in Tunisia, such dramatic events can only happen because of short- as well as long-terms dysfunctions of the Hong Kong government, with the little people—booksellers included!—feeling more and more like helpless victims, in a wider context of broken promises—social, economical and political. Beyond the almost exclusive blame put on C.Y. Leung “dismantling the city bit by bit”, Ng’s final comments sound like a resounding warning: “Unless we find a way to cool the rising political temperature, it is perhaps a matter of time before we have our very own Mohamed Bouazizi and protesters set more than just garbage on fire.”

A study released in mid-January by The University of Hong Kong actually showed that the Public Sentiment Index had hit a 20-year low, even lower than in 2003 at the time of the combined SARS and Article 23 crises, or at the end of 2014 during the Umbrella Movement. The Index is precisely meant to quantify Hong Kong people’s sentiments “in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour”!
What about Macao then? Is there a “localist” movement? Is civil society mature enough to escape the grip of traditional associations? Is the government perceived as doing the right job and is it fully trusted? One would be hard-pressed to find a hint of scientifically grounded survey regarding any of these issues… let alone anticipate them!

Published in Macau Daily Times on February 12th 2016