Kapok: Groundhog Day

In the 1993 comedy “Groundhog Day”, Bill Murray plays a weatherman who falls victim of some form of never ending time loop while reluctantly covering a seemingly dull and repetitive story about a rodent able to forecast the weather: each and every morning, the very same day starts all over again, and the weatherman is stuck on February 2nd. What appears as an opportunity at first, providing endless occasions to influence the same situations for both worst and best, soon turns into a nightmare, as the now much wiser character discovers the limits of his newly-found omnipotence. Ultimately, only the discovery of his true benevolent self will allow him to break free from this doom—this is after all a Hollywood movie.
Beyond the growing annoyance, this feeling of everlasting repetition made pointless by the powerlessness of the protagonists is obviously what resonates most in the hearts and minds of many people in Macao when it comes to “traffic issues”. The problem is: Macao is no Hollywood!
While on the trail to win an election for which he was running unopposed last August, Mr Chui went the extra step of gathering people’s “opinions and suggestions”—let’s say grievances. Quite unexpectedly it seems—we had been told time and time again that “housing” was the No. 1 problem—it was reported in November that the most pressing concern for Macao residents was actually the one concerning traffic. At the time, a very inspired Lao Pun Lap, the head of the government think-tank, revealed that even though he did not have the “exact figure” for the breakdown of these 87,425 “opinions” (out of a total of 111,246) exclusively troubled by “traffic issues”, a majority of citizens expected the government to give high-priority to public transportation, and that the number of vehicles on the road should be limited, the number of parking spots increased, the LRT construction work sped up and the overall management of traffic flow improved.
This is pretty much in line with observations and suggestions—clearly I cannot use the word “commitments”—that were developed back in 2009 in the “General Policy on Traffic and Land Transportation in Macao (2010-2020)” issued by the Transport Bureau (DSAT): the future in terms of “mobility” was bleak if projections from 2010 were to be trusted (too many private cars, too slow a traffic, lengthened commuting time and too much pollution) and thus a duly identified impending disaster required swift actions and long term planning. According to that document, by 2012, the priority was to be the reorganization of “public transports” and “the safeguarding of commuting”, and by 2015, the “metro” would have started operating and “tangible results in every area supporting the ‘primacy of public transports’” would have been achieved. Let’s face it: every aspect of the four step action plan of that 2009 blueprint—improving public transport, reasonably managing private vehicles, creating a sense of flawless mobility and pursuing the construction of infrastructures and a better education regarding road safety—are utter failures.
The new Secretary for transport and public works, Raimundo do Rosário, is absolutely right when he hints at the fact that the issue of traffic congestion and the ways to solve it are a matter of collective responsibility. When newspapers are filled with full-page ads of cars whose speed and size are simply insane for a 30 sq. kilometer territory, they bear a responsibility. When people pressure the government to keep the price of petrol and the tax on vehicles low, they share part of the blame—and the same goes for legislators who speak on behalf of the said people. When the government fails to organize sensible tenders for big infrastructure projects, or when it proves unable to supervise the realization of these projects, or when it makes a mistake in the type of contract it issues for the concessionary exploitation of the city’s bus lanes, it does indeed bear another significant part of the responsibility.
The failure to address the challenges of fast deteriorating mobility in Macao has already had a great impact on our mind—peace of mind—, lungs and purse, and clearly breaking free from that apparently inevitable trap will require far more than good intentions and benevolence.

Published in Macau Daily Times, May 1st 2015

Kapok: Swift and resolute

The recently dismissed mayor of Bogota, Gustavo Petro, was absolutely right when he stated that “a developed country is not a place where the poor have cars. It’s where the rich use public transportation.” I am pretty sure our neighbors in Hong Kong, having just been listed ‘best city in the world for commuters’, would beg to disagree: indeed developed countries can have it all—nice cars for those who can afford them and great public transportations for everybody—it just comes at a price.
If Hong Kong tops the list of the 84 cities assessed in the “The Future of Urban Mobility 2.0”, it still underachieves when it comes to the development of cycling paths and is clearly not faring well as far as air quality indicators are concerned. And yet, even in the first installation of the very same report produced by consulting firm Arthur D. Little in 2011, Hong Kong was already No. 1 and its success was seen as resulting from “a well-balanced split between different forms of transport that move people away from individualized motorized transport”—the Octopus card, owned at the time by 95% of citizens, was being deemed the cornerstone of a “well-articulated mobility strategy”. 
In 2014 the wording has grown stronger: Hong Kong is now doted with “the most advanced urban mobility system in the world.” Among the key elements of that system: public transport represents 64% of the modal split; the number of vehicles registered per capita is among the lowest amongst the cities surveyed; and the average number of smart cards per citizen reaches 3.1! Residents often own two cards, whereas both cross-border commuters and tourists alike are strongly encouraged to get one. When it comes to “green” drawbacks, things have obviously deteriorated since 2011, apart from cycling paths: transport-related CO2 emissions have doubled in just three years! Hence the adoption of the resolute and ambitious “Clean Air Plan” in March 2013, clearly a pre-condition for cycling paths to be rolled out beyond the New Territories…
What about Macao? 
In a previous column, I already stressed the inadequacy of the yearly assessment provided by the Transport Department (DSAT) regarding the setting in motion of the “General Policy on Traffic and Land Transportation in Macao (2010-2020)”—which, back in 2009, lucidly identified the main issues while making some far-reaching, although not mandatory, recommendations. To put it simply, the DSAT report can hardly hide that “too little” is done and “too slow”. Key statistics, like the share of public transport in the modal split, the penetration of smart cards or the cars per capita ratio are simply absent—despite some of these indicators being used in the 2009 consultation document. 
The criteria delineated by the Arthur D. Little survey could therefore be of interest: all together, it is some 19 factors divided between “maturity” and “performance” elements that allow for a fruitful comparative perspective. On the “maturity” side, only 2 out of 12 criteria seem to bode well in favor of Macao: the low public transportation fare and the frequency of the busiest transportation lines. But road density is about 7 times more than in Hong Kong and the number of cars per capita at least 2 times more, even if we exclude the 2-wheelers. On the side of “performance”, hardly any criteria seem to have improved based on measurements available in Macao: air indicators are deteriorating; traffic-related fatalities are worsening; the evolution of the share of public transport or zero-emissions means in the modal split are marginally positive; and the mean travel time to work has clearly gotten worse. 
While waiting for the LRT to be completed, swift and resolute action seems needed. Even though the “how(s)” would require undoubtedly more than a column to explore, redesigning bus routes and operations might prove useful, while making a better integrated usage of the Macau Pass could help—all parking meters in Hong Kong have been Octopus friendly since 2004. But first things first: let’s improve the assessment criteria!

Published in Macau Daily Times on April 18 2014

KAPOK: A Hell of a Bridge

I settled in Macao at the time when the Sai Wan Bridge was being built. The view was truly spectacular: colossal piles of concrete were being planted in the murky water on both sides of the channel between Eastern Taipa and the peninsula, and this cyclopean endeavor of 2,200 meters reflected the promise of a giant step forward if not for mankind at least for the future development of Macao. Symbolically, its “M” shape reminded us proudly of the initial letter of the SAR name in most Latin scripts, and let’s be honest, although the pressing need for a new passage to the islands seemed questionable when it opened in 2004, everybody felt it was indeed an elegant piece of suspended motorway. Moreover, for the first time ever, all districts of Macao would remain accessible thanks to its emergency lower deck tunnel even when hit by the worst typhoons. Beautiful, visionary, practical…
But integrity, unfortunately, does not only apply to territory. Later on, in the wake of the Ao Man Long scandal, the most valuable piece of infrastructure since the handover became known as the “corruption bridge”: in order to win the tender, the general manager of Chon Tit (Macau) Investment and Development, the contractor, had paid a kickback of 14 million Patacas to the former Secretary for Transport and Public Works. Since then, and especially because of the future construction of the light rapid-transit (LRT), several flaws in design have surfaced, most importantly regarding ventilation systems and emergency evacuation routes in the lower deck tunnel and of course the capacity (or more precisely the lack thereof) of the bridge's 96 supporting cables to meet loading requirements for the additional weight of the LRT. If we discard rust, potholes and cracks, only the surface of the bridge remained unscathed, but that was counting without the DSAT’s most recent resolve.
As it is often the case, everything started with a noble intention. Rightly concerned by a spate of serious road casualties involving motorcycles on the Sai Wan Bridge, the DSAT decided a few months ago to go ahead with a plan to create a dedicated lane for motorcycles on the bridge. Fair enough. Previous talks regarding exclusive two-wheelers lanes on that bridge had already occurred in 2007 when the use of the lower deck tunnel was justly considered, just to be dismissed because of lack of ventilation systems (remind you of something?). What came as a shock this time around is that the motorcycles-only lane would be placed on the right side of the road, thus contradicting a general rule that motorcycles should keep on their left and imposing an intricate scheme contrary to the most basic common sense — at least in four locations, the main gangway for cars is reduced to a single lane! 
This new scheme does belong to the generic category of absurd decision making as it persistently and fundamentally acts against its professed objective: security is far from being guaranteed, as the accident that occurred on August 27 just reminded us, just eight days after the supposedly provisional plan went into effect. It is doubly absurd as the new scheme has now created problems of its own pertaining to practicality and fluidity of traffic—I can predict monster traffic jams after school resumes on Monday September 3rd. DSAT, please check and act—amend or scrap! As we all very well know the road to hell is paved with good intentions!

Published in Macau Daily Times on August 31st 2012

KAPOK: On the Road Again

Traffic congestion is on the rise in Macao, a situation that every resident experiences on a daily basis, whether he or she is a driver or a simple pedestrian having to hop on a bus or just cross the street while humming a carbon dioxide enriched SAR air. Many culprits are of course to be blamed, but recent figures released by the DSEC on the number of new vehicles being put on the road every month has found a disturbing and overemphasized echo in the news, as if the end user — the car driver — was the chief culprit and therefore had to be disciplined by imposing more stringent taxes on the licensing of new vehicles.
Looking at the official figures, one first realizes that there are a lot of vehicles on the roads of Macao and that new registrations are on the rise, by 5% officially year-on-year for a total 210,580 vehicles (112,644 motorcycles, 91,326 light automobiles and 6,610 heavy automobiles) at the end of June 2012 — a journalist from the Portuguese press made the calculation that “some 21 new vehicles invade the streets of our little territory every day”. But then, how do we compare? If one looks at Hong Kong, there were 425,000 licensed private cars in June 2011, whereas the equivalent figure for Macao was 78,000: a ratio of about 1/5.5 whereas the population ratio between the two SARs is about 1/13.3. Not too bad for Macao.
A more common ratio however does not refer to the total population or even the number of drivers but to the number of kilometers of public roads. In Hong Kong, this figure is widely available — 293 vehicles (not counting motorcycles) per public road kilometer — whereas for Macao I had to reconstruct the ratio by looking at Chapter 13 of the Yearbook, where one can find two figures for the total number of kilometers of road: either 311 kilometers of roads and highways (this figure being also the one advertised in the cover page of the chapter) or 413 kilometers of roads and highways “for vehicles”. We therefore end up with respectively 315 or 237 vehicles per kilometer of public roads. In either case, that ratio is not that bad — hence my wonder as to why we have two figures and what they mean exactly, either in English or in Chinese — as we fare well in the range of Hong Kong or even Singapore and Tokyo, and far better than Taipei, for example, that stands at more than 1,000 vehicles per kilometer of roads.
Is the total number of vehicles really the main culprit then? Will increasing the taxes just like in Singapore where taxes on new car licensing amount to more than the price of the car really the solution? Is imposing quotas and selling new plates at public auctions as it has been the case in Shanghai since the 1990s the way to go (average price for a new plate standing at more than RMB50,000)? Luckily enough in Macao there is no contradiction between our aspiration to live a better and cleaner life and the necessity to boost our automobile industry, so it is high time to say that the real solution lies in having a far-reaching and meaningful urban development master plan coupled to an integrated public transportation service that makes private vehicles “unwelcome” in our streets, even though they comply by Euro VI standards (and not only Euro IV as it has just been decided). There is no more time for compromise!

Published in Macau Daily Times, August 3rd 2012