Kapok: Who’s the worst?

A survey conducted last week by the Association of Macao New Vision made the front page of the Chinese Daily Cheng Pou 正報 on September 27th revealing that the public rating of all twelve elected members of the Legislative Assembly had dropped compared to last year’s survey, even though Ng Kuok Cheong (a democrat) is still considered the best performer and Kwan Tsui Hang (traditional association, Macau Federation of Trade Unions’) remains the most well-known of the whole lot.

As far as the big picture is concerned, a bit more than 58% of the respondents consider that the Assembly has done an “OK job” (my free translation of “half-half”, 一半一半) in the past legislature, and the rest is highly polarized: only a bit more than 15% are satisfied, and a bit more than 17% dissatisfied. Strikingly, this third installation of the survey reveals that the proportion of “OK job” appraisals has risen constantly, some 8-percentage points more than in 2010, and that about half the respondents don’t believe there has been any improvement when compared to the previous legislature.

Now, looking at individual scores, the three best performers are two democrats, Ng Kuok Cheong and Au Kam San, and a vocal independent legislator cum-civil servant representative José Pereira Coutinho: surprise, surprise, together with Kwan Tsui Hang, these are the only four legislators scoring 60+ on a scale of 100. Then, in descending order, come Ho Ion Sang (traditional association, UGAMM known as Kai Fong), Chan Wai Chi (a democrat), Lee Chong Cheng (traditional association, Macau Federation of Trade Unions), Mak Soi Kun (business interests), Melinda Chan (gambling interests), Ung Choi Kun (business/ gambling interests), Chan Meng Kam (gambling interests) and last, but not least, Angela Leong (gambling interests).

From a purely subjective perspective — exactly what this survey is about, the public perception — it is stating the obvious to say that elected legislators representing gambling interests fail to impress the citizenry. Although multiple factors can explain this state of affairs, one can easily suspect that what wins the praises of the public has to do with the actual social engagement of individual legislators and of course with the capacity of these legislators to defend the general good of the community at large, rather than narrow and segmented interests. One cannot help but notice that all legislators representing business interests are in the lower half of the rankings.

If one connects these perceptions to facts (attendance in plenary sessions and permanent commissions; written and oral interpellations of the government) one can easily find causality relations: Ng Kuok Cheong attends all plenary sessions and permanent commission meetings and is for sure one of the most vocal legislators of the Assembly, both behind a microphone and in writing; whereas Angela Leong misses a lot of permanent commission meetings and writes four times less than Mr Ng. Interestingly enough, the fact that the overall rating of legislators (including the democrats) has continuously declined in the past two years despite the citizenry’s attested growing political awareness seems to indicate a rising disenchantment towards the political elite at large, probably induced by a lack of renewal of political personnel. And remember, this is just an indicative survey, with all its methodological shortcomings, dealing with elected members of the Assembly: Imagine what the appraisal of Vitor Cheung Lup Kwan or Fong Chi Keong would be, both of them indirectly elected and overall winners of the title for legislators least present in plenary sessions…

Published in Macau Daily Times on September 28th 2012

KAPOK: The magnificent seven

Every ten years, it has become a ritual that a change of leadership occurs in China, and a “new” team takes over and is expected to usher the country (now the second biggest economy in the world) into an era of rejuvenated economic vitality and reshuffled social cohesiveness.
This master narrative of a peaceful transition of power in a communist regime is all the more surprising that it can claim thirty years of existence – and this in spite of having been vehemently contested during the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 at a time when, precisely, Communism was crumbling in Eastern Europe. Yet, what is also striking is the level of secrecy that still adorns this change of leadership, even today, in spite of China hosting the largest population of Internet users — officially 538 million as of last July!
Mix tantalizing and worldwide curiosity with secrecy, cloak and dagger behind-the-scenes factional strife, and flawed yet viral circulation of information and you get an explosive cocktail of wildly spinning rumors and crippled certainties. Yet, a bit of historical perspective and cool-headed analytical consideration can help defuse reporting stirs overloaded with anxiety.
One of the arguments oft cited as fuelling the rumors is the fact that, as of today, the dates of the 18th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are still not disclosed, or more precisely, are merely scheduled for “the second half” of 2012. Rather imprecise one would agree, as if the game were still “open” and thus arrangements for the succession not yet carved in stone. In a recent posting, Qian Gang from the China Media Project reminded us that it was not until 1982 that the CCP Congress managed to make good on the once-every-five-years tempo. At the time when the Congress was supposed to be held annually or triennially, political turmoil led to staggering delays: 17 years between the 6th (1928) and the 7th (1945) congresses, 11 years between the 7th and 8th (1956) and 13 years between the 8th and 9th (1969)… On the contrary, the two held in the 1970s were convened one year in advance: the 10th Congress (1973) because of the suspicious death of Lin Biao and the 11th (1977) because of the downfall of the Gang of Four! Just for reference, the 17th Congress was held from 15th to 21st October 2007.
As to the recent spat of rumors regarding the disappearance of the Secretary General in waiting, Xi Jinping, for 11 days: The press, especially the international media, started noticing when Xi canceled meetings with Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton and Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Now rumors have run havoc, ranging from a simple ailment due to a back problem to a heart attack, a car crash, and even a terrorist attack! Words like back injury 背伤 or crown prince 皇储, a netizen nickname for Xi, are banned from micro-blogging services in China. And things got even worse when it was reported that He Guoqiang, the No. 8 on the Standing Committee, had himself not been seen since August 28th! Let’s just remember that Premier Li Peng back in 1993 went missing for 7 long weeks! And let’s be honest, even in a democracy, from Roosevelt to François Mitterrand, health conditions and the exercise of power at the highest level have often had obscure relations.
Yes, the CCP and the regime it clings power to are still extremely secretive. Will all this hype change anything? Nope: it is now almost certain that Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Zhang Dejiang, Li Yuanchao, Wang Qishan and Wang Yang will become the paramount leaders of China. What would really bring uncertainty though would be an announcement right after the Congress that intra-party democracy 党内民主 should be the guiding principle of political reform in the coming five years!

Published in Macau Daily Times on September 14th 2012