Every ten years, it has become a ritual that a change of leadership occurs in China, and a “new” team takes over and is expected to usher the country (now the second biggest economy in the world) into an era of rejuvenated economic vitality and reshuffled social cohesiveness.
This master narrative of a peaceful transition of power in a communist regime is all the more surprising that it can claim thirty years of existence – and this in spite of having been vehemently contested during the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 at a time when, precisely, Communism was crumbling in Eastern Europe. Yet, what is also striking is the level of secrecy that still adorns this change of leadership, even today, in spite of China hosting the largest population of Internet users — officially 538 million as of last July!
Mix tantalizing and worldwide curiosity with secrecy, cloak and dagger behind-the-scenes factional strife, and flawed yet viral circulation of information and you get an explosive cocktail of wildly spinning rumors and crippled certainties. Yet, a bit of historical perspective and cool-headed analytical consideration can help defuse reporting stirs overloaded with anxiety.
One of the arguments oft cited as fuelling the rumors is the fact that, as of today, the dates of the 18th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are still not disclosed, or more precisely, are merely scheduled for “the second half” of 2012. Rather imprecise one would agree, as if the game were still “open” and thus arrangements for the succession not yet carved in stone. In a recent posting, Qian Gang from the China Media Project reminded us that it was not until 1982 that the CCP Congress managed to make good on the once-every-five-years tempo. At the time when the Congress was supposed to be held annually or triennially, political turmoil led to staggering delays: 17 years between the 6th (1928) and the 7th (1945) congresses, 11 years between the 7th and 8th (1956) and 13 years between the 8th and 9th (1969)… On the contrary, the two held in the 1970s were convened one year in advance: the 10th Congress (1973) because of the suspicious death of Lin Biao and the 11th (1977) because of the downfall of the Gang of Four! Just for reference, the 17th Congress was held from 15th to 21st October 2007.
As to the recent spat of rumors regarding the disappearance of the Secretary General in waiting, Xi Jinping, for 11 days: The press, especially the international media, started noticing when Xi canceled meetings with Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton and Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Now rumors have run havoc, ranging from a simple ailment due to a back problem to a heart attack, a car crash, and even a terrorist attack! Words like back injury 背伤 or crown prince 皇储, a netizen nickname for Xi, are banned from micro-blogging services in China. And things got even worse when it was reported that He Guoqiang, the No. 8 on the Standing Committee, had himself not been seen since August 28th! Let’s just remember that Premier Li Peng back in 1993 went missing for 7 long weeks! And let’s be honest, even in a democracy, from Roosevelt to François Mitterrand, health conditions and the exercise of power at the highest level have often had obscure relations.
Yes, the CCP and the regime it clings power to are still extremely secretive. Will all this hype change anything? Nope: it is now almost certain that Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Zhang Dejiang, Li Yuanchao, Wang Qishan and Wang Yang will become the paramount leaders of China. What would really bring uncertainty though would be an announcement right after the Congress that intra-party democracy 党内民主 should be the guiding principle of political reform in the coming five years!
Published in Macau Daily Times on September 14th 2012
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